Before the pandemic, the most unstable Nevada schools had nearly 1 in 5 students chronically absent, which meant they missed at least 10 percent of the time school was in session. Now, 1 in 3 students on average fall into that category across all schools in the state.
Nevada鈥檚 not alone. Absenteeism rates in the bottom 10 percent of schools before the pandemic have become the new normal for all schools in 32 states, according to new analysis of state data by the American Enterprise Institute鈥檚 . In fact, out of 39 states that collect absenteeism data, 30 states now have average chronic absenteeism rates significantly worse than those in their lowest 10 percent of schools for student attendance rates in 2017-18, AEI senior fellow Nat Malkus found.
While all but six of the 39 states improved attendance from 2022 to 2023鈥攂y about 2 percent on average鈥攏one are back to pre-pandemic levels.
鈥淲e鈥檙e still going the wrong way, where what we really want to see are big drops,鈥� said Malkus, AEI鈥檚 deputy director of education policy. 鈥淭wo percent is not enough, especially given the drop in COVID threat. If that holds, we鈥檒l get back to pre-pandemic chronic absenteeism in about 2030鈥攖hat鈥檚 not good.鈥�
Absenteeism rates grew faster in districts that had higher chronic absenteeism to begin with, but the increases were across the board. Districts of different sizes and income levels, different levels of student diversity, and in all regions of the country saw large, sustained increases in chronic absenteeism.
The AEI analysis generally aligns with a of state data released earlier this month by Stanford education researcher Thomas Dee. Both studies find that the share of students considered chronically absent rose about 90 percent since the pandemic.
顿别别鈥檚 , published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, similarly found that chronic absenteeism spiked 91 percent nationwide from 2018-19 to 2021-22, marking 6.5 million more students in 2021-22 who missed 10 percent or more of school days.
Using a model that compared changes in chronic absenteeism over time, Dee found COVID-19 case rates, school masking policies, overall enrollment changes and rising youth mental health problems鈥攁ll of which have been pointed to as potential causes of rising absenteeism鈥攎ade no significant difference in the rise of chronic absenteeism across districts.
According to UNESCO鈥檚 , the United States has not had a COVID-19-related school closure since late January 2022, but Malkus noted that many schools still have policies urging caution for parents around respiratory illnesses and the tightening of school release practices.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think we ever saw a pivot,鈥� Malkus said. 鈥淓ven where you saw leadership on returning [to school] in person and so forth, we haven鈥檛 seen a broad enough push to say, 鈥楢ll right, pandemic-era, exceptional practices are over; let鈥檚 get back to work.鈥欌��
Both Malkus and Dee suggested that norms around attending school regularly have weakened during the pandemic, and federal and state efforts to help students recover academically and mentally from the disruption have not focused enough on rebuilding those academic habits.
鈥淐ulture eats policy for breakfast day in and day out,鈥� Malkus said. 鈥淚f what we are seeing are problems with post-pandemic school culture, then we really do need to bring every bit of attention to this, because we are not going to see this correct itself naturally. We鈥檙e going to see serious problems long term, especially if we let this become the new normal鈥攁nd right now, that is exactly what we鈥檙e seeing.鈥�
Despite the small declines in absenteeism, neither researcher has so far found clear instances of states making significant progress in bringing absenteeism back to pre-COVID levels. Both suggested policymakers and educators will need to prioritize attendance to make any other academic recovery intervention effective.
鈥淵ou鈥檝e got a double-edged sword here,鈥� Malkus said. 鈥淏lunt efforts at criminalizing missing school are not simply going to get us where we want to go. At the same time, being gun-shy about the nature of the problem and 鈥� only bringing positive supports is also unlikely to meet the needs of the moment.鈥�
