The U.S. Supreme Court is poised to deliver a major blow to teachers鈥� unions in the coming months: Teachers in about half of states may no longer have to pay mandatory fees if they鈥檙e not union members, which could cause drops in both revenue and membership.
There鈥檚 national speculation about what this all could mean鈥攚hile observers say this case won鈥檛 be unions鈥� demise, it could cause the political juggernauts to lose some power. And some teachers are wondering whether this will signal a shift in how teachers鈥� unions operate.
At stake in Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees Council 31 are the so-called 鈥渁gency鈥� or 鈥渇air-share鈥� fees that public-employee unions in 22 states charge to workers who choose not to join but are still represented in collective bargaining. The plaintiff in the case argues that these policies violate free speech鈥攈e is forced to pay money to a group that advocates for causes he does not support. The unions say all workers gain from the bargaining they do for salaries and other benefits, so paying a fee for that is only fair.
The case, for which oral arguments will be delivered later this month, would affect all public-employee unions, including the American Federation of Teachers, the National 91制片厂视频 Association, and their state and local affiliates. With the confirmation of President Donald Trump鈥檚 nominee, Neil M. Gorsuch, to the Supreme Court, many analysts, onlookers, and some union representatives themselves predict that the justices will rule in Janus鈥� favor.
Parties Gird for Supreme Court Showdown Over Union Fees
If that happens, teachers鈥� unions could see a decrease in membership over the next few years, analysts say. That鈥檚 because many who pay agency fees decide to simply kick in the extra dollars to become full members. The unions would also lose the revenues generated by those agency fees, which could result in a reduction of union staff members. The NEA has about 88,000 agency fee payers, while the AFT has about 94,000鈥攕mall percentages of the total number of teachers they represent.
鈥淲e should expect to see unions lose some of their sway in policymaking,鈥� said Katharine Strunk, a professor of education policy at Michigan State University. 鈥淚f we feel like the union power really is associated with resources and funds, ... you might expect to see that unions are less able to put up a fight, and we鈥檇 see more of these policies [that they have been advocating for, including around tenure and teacher evaluations] flip.鈥�
For Randi Weingarten, the AFT president, the case is an ideological attempt to minimize鈥攅ven eviscerate鈥攖he impact teachers鈥� unions have.
Union opposers 鈥渉ave no interest in helping school teachers,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hey just want to deplete our membership.鈥�
Still, any significant membership changes might take several years to materialize, said Mike Antonucci, a frequent union critic and the director of the 91制片厂视频 Intelligence Agency, a private research firm that specializes in education labor issues.
He thinks some of the more immediate effects might be for the states that don鈥檛 have agency fees, because they rely heavily on subsidies from the national unions. 鈥淚f those subsidies get reduced, and they鈥檙e on the edge already鈥攈ow do they continue to operate?鈥� he asked.
Yet onlookers caution that an unfavorable ruling would be a shock to the system for unions, not a death knell.
鈥淐ould this put teachers鈥� unions out of business? No. Not close,鈥� said Charles Taylor Kerchner, a professor emeritus and senior research fellow of educational studies at Claremont Graduate University in California. 鈥淯nions can go to grass roots and get back to constant organizing fairly quickly. It might drive unions to get closer to their core, to get closer to their members, and to be sort of more in touch with what鈥檚 going on.鈥�
Knocking on Doors
Indeed, teachers鈥� unions in agency-fee states have already started recruiting educators to become full members and retain their memberships regardless of the Supreme Court ruling.
鈥淲hen people get that this is a 鈥榃hose side are you on?鈥� moment, and what the proponents of this case are trying to do, they get really, really mad,鈥� Weingarten said, adding that local affiliate leaders have been having one-on-one conversations with members.
In Minnesota, more than 1,200 fair-share fee payers have become full members since September, when 91制片厂视频 Minnesota launched a campaign to inform teachers about the effects of Janus, said Denise Specht, the union鈥檚 president. Most of those teachers, she said, didn鈥檛 realize they weren鈥檛 full members.
And in New York City, union representatives from the United Federation of Teachers have been knocking on the doors of thousands of teachers across the city for months to talk to them about what Janus means, and to urge them to recommit to the union.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really about educating our members鈥攅very benefit and right we have, we have fought for, we protect, we have earned,鈥� said Michael Mulgrew, the UFT president. 鈥淚f [the Supreme Court ruling] doesn鈥檛 go in our favor, then we know that we will be targeted by others giving misinformation to our union.鈥�
Currently, 1 percent of teachers in the UFT鈥檚 bargaining unit are agency-fee payers rather than full members. Mulgrew hopes to get that number down to below 0.5 percent.
John Troutman McCrann, a high school math teacher in New York City, who is also the leader of the union chapter for his school, has been working to engage teachers to make sure they feel represented by their union. His fear is that if educators don鈥檛 have to pay agency fees, many teachers would become free riders.
鈥淲e鈥檙e not going to have some classes with 40 students and some classes with 33,鈥� McCrann said. 鈥淔olks who don鈥檛 pay union dues are going to get the benefits of what we鈥檝e been working for.鈥�
In California, 10 percent of teachers are agency-fee payers, said Eric Heins, the president of the California Teachers Association.
In conversations, representatives of local affiliates have learned that some of those teachers hadn鈥檛 joined because they didn鈥檛 know what the union did, Heins said.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a good wake-up call, when you have threats like this, to refocus,鈥� Heins said.
When Lily Eskelsen-Garc铆a, the NEA president, was a teacher in Utah, her school鈥檚 union meetings were open to members and non-members alike, she said.
鈥淚t was a chance for us to say, 鈥楧o you see who we are? Do you see what we鈥檙e trying to do? Do you see why you鈥檙e important?鈥� Eskelsen-Garc铆a said.
That kind of outreach, which sometimes leads people to join, needs to happen more often, she said.
Some say Janus could be an opportunity for educators to rethink what unions should look like.
鈥淚 think a lot of people don鈥檛 feel very engaged or don鈥檛 feel very integral [to] their own union,鈥� said Kathleen Melville, a 9th grade teacher in Philadelphia who is active in her local affiliate.
She has been talking to her colleagues about the value of being a union member. 鈥淚鈥檝e never met a teacher who said, 鈥業 want less in benefits or to get paid less,鈥欌�� she said. 鈥淓very member we lose is power we lose at the bargaining table.鈥�
鈥楧o They Represent Me? No鈥�
A nationally representative survey of 537 teachers by the 91制片厂视频 Week Research Center found that 14 percent of teachers said the union represents their political views 鈥渘ot at all.鈥� About 20 percent said 鈥渙nly a little.鈥�
Bruce Aster, a high school history teacher in Carlsbad, Calif., doesn鈥檛 feel represented at all by his union鈥攁 frustration that spurred him to sign on to an amicus brief with a half-dozen other California educators arguing on behalf of Janus.
鈥淕olly, do [unions] represent me? No,鈥� Aster said. 鈥淚 would be content and probably welcome them representing me on pure workplace stuff.鈥�
Instead, Aster pays around $1,100 a year in fair-share fees and receives a refund of about $400鈥攖he amount of his fees that the union would have used for non-collective bargaining activities. Even though he鈥檚 not contributing toward overtly political activities, Aster said he disagrees with much of what the union deems important, even for bargaining purposes.
Tim Erickson, a special education teacher in Detroit Lakes, Minn., doesn鈥檛 always support the unions鈥� politics and positions, but plans to remain a member no matter what the Supreme Court decides.
鈥淭he devil I know is better than the devil I don鈥檛 know,鈥� he said, adding that his union has helped negotiate smaller class sizes and better working conditions. 鈥淚f that union goes away, holy smokes, are we going to see drastic changes in education.鈥�
While some teachers say they wish the unions would stay out of politics, union leaders argue education is inherently political, making it critical that they take stances on candidates and issues that affect their members.
鈥淧olitics makes a difference ... in our classrooms and our professional lives,鈥� said Heins, the CTA president. 鈥淎nd to not be engaged in that would be irresponsible.鈥�
What Comes Next?
As union leaders brace for a ruling likely to be delivered this spring, educators and analysts alike are imagining what the groups will look like, post-Janus.
鈥淢aybe it will [inspire] union reform鈥攐r maybe people will create from within unions that truly just represent on workforce issues,鈥� said Aster.
And Melville, the Philadelphia teacher who supports the union, said she hopes that teachers鈥� unions will shift to be more democratic and engage in more grass-roots activities.
Not everyone foresees unions becoming more responsive to members. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very difficult for me to imagine a group of partisan Democrats saying we need to pay more attention to what Republicans are saying,鈥� said Antonucci, the analyst, referring to the fact that union leaders tend to be liberal while members are more mixed.
Ultimately, though, teachers鈥� unions aren鈥檛 going anywhere, analysts say.
鈥淯nions have always had severe ups and downs,鈥� said Kerchner, the Claremont research fellow. 鈥淭hey have been counted out many, many times, and they tend to come back. People have a legitimate interest in a desire to organize around things that they care about鈥攍ike their job, like some sort of sense of social justice鈥攁nd unions are a pretty good vehicle for that.鈥�
