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The teachers鈥� unions avoided a damaging blow last week when the U.S. Supreme Court stopped short of overruling a key precedent that authorizes them to extract service fees from those who object to joining the union.

In a case involving the unionization of home-health-care workers in Illinois, the justices ruled 5-4 that workers under the Medicaid program were not full-fledged state employees, and thus the court鈥檚 1977 precedent permitting unions to charge 鈥渁gency fees鈥� to nonmembers for collective bargaining did not apply.

But writing for the majority in Harris v. Quinn (Case No. 11-681), Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. devoted page after page to undermining the precedent, Abood v. Detroit Board of 91制片厂视频. He repeated his stance from a 2012 decision that Abood is 鈥渁n anomaly鈥� that doesn鈥檛 fit well with the First Amendment鈥檚 guarantee of free expression because it permits states to compel union objectors to support views with which they disagree.

鈥淲hile we do not overrule or affirm Abood,鈥� Justice Alito said in court on June 30, 鈥渨e refuse to extend it鈥� to the Illinois home-health workers. His opinion was joined by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony M. Kennedy, and Clarence Thomas.

Theories abounded last week about why the court鈥檚 conservatives declined to overrule the Abood precedent. Justice Alito had essentially invited a challenge to Abood in the decision two years ago, Knox v. Service Employees International Union, which also dealt with agency fees, and most of the briefing and argument in the Illinois case this term had been about whether Abood should be overruled.

One theory is that the Illinois program showed itself to be different from the normal case of government employment. The patients, or 鈥渃ustomers,鈥� in the Medicaid program control most aspects of the home-health workers鈥� employment, and they were only considered state workers so they could form a union.

鈥淚t is therefore unnecessary for us to reach [the objecting workers鈥橾 argument that Abood should be overruled,鈥� Justice Alito said in a footnote鈥攁fter he spent about 12 pages questioning Abood and its underpinnings in the court鈥檚 other precedents on private-sector union shops and public-sector agency shops.

Another, seemingly more likely theory, is that Justice Alito鈥檚 draft opinion was aiming to overrule Abood, but one or more members of his majority declined to go that far.

鈥淚t鈥檚 very interesting that after the Knox case, in which Alito invited this full-dress challenge to Abood, he couldn鈥檛 get the fifth vote for that proposition,鈥� Alice O鈥橞rien, the general counsel of the 3 million-member National 91制片厂视频 Association, said in an interview.

But she agreed that Justice Alito and the majority were potentially sending another, more formal 鈥渨arning shot鈥� about the continued viability of Abood. The NEA filed a friend-of-the-court brief in the case on the side of the state of Illinois (and argued for not overruling Abood).

Matthew T. Bodie, a law professor at St. Louis University and a labor law expert, agreed that the court鈥檚 conservatives are likely setting the stage for the next challenge to Abood. He noted a third theory, that 鈥渢his is as far as they are able to go.鈥�

This is the view advanced by Justice Elena Kagan, writing the dissent also signed by Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen G. Breyer, and Sonia Sotomayor.

After criticizing the majority for 鈥渢aking potshots鈥� at the 1977 precedent, Justice Kagan said, 鈥淭he Abood rule is deeply entrenched, and is the foundation for not tens or hundreds, but thousands of contracts between unions and governments across the nation. Our precedent about precedent, fairly understood and applied, makes it impossible for this court to reverse that decision.鈥�

Teachers鈥� Case Coming

The foes of public-employee unions were masking any disappointment that the court did not go further and overrule Abood.

鈥淗ere, they didn鈥檛 need to, and if the court can avoid overruling a precedent, it will,鈥� said William L. Messenger of the National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation, the Springfield, Va.-based group that represented the objecting Illinois workers and which has battled the teachers鈥� unions for years over issues such as compelled fees.

Still, 鈥渢he court鈥檚 holding that Abood is on shaky foundations means that its days may be numbered,鈥� Mr. Messenger said.

The next challenge to Abood may reach the Supreme Court sooner than later. In California, a group of 10 nonunion teachers from several districts are challenging that state鈥檚 law authorizing teachers鈥� unions to charge agency fees to nonmembers.

The nonunion members object not just to political spending by their local and state NEA affiliates, which they theoretically aren鈥檛 being charged for, but they also 鈥渇undamentally disagree with many of the policy positions the unions advance in the collective-bargaining process,鈥� their court papers say.

Michael A. Carvin, an experienced Supreme Court litigator in Washington who is helping to represent the teachers, noted last week that the teachers can only win if the high court overrules Abood. So he renewed a request last week that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit, in San Francisco, rule against the group as quickly as possible so the case can be on its way to Washington.

鈥淚 think the [Supreme] Court will seriously entertain a case from teachers asking whether Abood should be overruled,鈥� he said.

Mark Richard, counsel of the 1.5 million-member American Federation of Teachers, said that 鈥渦nions have to assume that as they go forward, that Abood is at risk. You can鈥檛 read Alito鈥檚 comments without concluding that.鈥� He said the 鈥渃ounterintuitive鈥� assessment is that 鈥渦nions will use the ruling to actually get stronger. 鈥� The court may change the rules, but that will not dissuade union leaders from more organizing.鈥�

Ms. O鈥橞rien of the NEA noted that one of her lieutenants in the union鈥檚 legal office, Jason Walta, wrote an online essay last week suggesting that even if Abood were overruled, 鈥渋t would hardly be the kill-shot that some union opponents have cheered for.鈥�

鈥淥ur ability to recruit and retain members is not affected by鈥� the wrangling over agency fees, Ms. O鈥橞rien said. 鈥淭he NEA existed long before Abood, and, God forbid if it goes away, the NEA will exist long after Abood.鈥�