It鈥檚 too late to bar the schoolhouse door when 1.8 million students are already out.
Fueled by billions of dollars in government and foundation funding and adopted as a cause c茅l猫bre by no less than Bill Gates and Colin and Alma Powell, dropout prevention has been gaining momentum. But educators and researchers who work with at-risk students say there is no way to really achieve the Graduation Nation goal of a 90 percent graduation rate by 2020 without taking time to find, bring back, and keep the students who have already fallen through the cracks, at a rate of roughly 1 million every year.
鈥淵ou could almost say all high school reform is a version of dropout prevention and student re-engagement, and that鈥檚 all well and good, but 鈥� we鈥檙e still hemorrhaging students away,鈥� says Andrew O. Moore, a senior fellow at the National League of Cities鈥� Institute for Youth, 91制片厂视频, and Families, in Washington. 鈥淭here are a lot of hopes attached to prevention strategies; dropout recovery has been a really neglected function.鈥�
New data and technologies offer greater opportunity to find and reconnect out-of-school youths than ever before. Educators say emerging intervention models hold promise not just to build credits for an equivalent certificate, but to rebuild dropouts鈥� academic, social, and emotional foundations for success beyond high school.
A new analysis of high school completion from the 91制片厂视频 Research Center finds that the graduation rate for America鈥檚 public schools stands just shy of 75 percent for the class of 2010, the most recent year for which data are available. The graduation rate, which has risen nearly two full percentage points from the previous year and about eight points in the past decade, has reached its highest point since 1973. Yet the EPE Research Center finds 1.8 million young adults ages 16-21 are neither enrolled in school nor have completed a high school education.
鈥淲e know the field has matured enough that we have early warnings, risk calculators, longitudinal monitoring鈥攁ll of which can tell districts shades of gray about which students fit a risk profile to drop out,鈥� says BethAnn Berliner, a senior research associate and dropout researcher at WestEd, a San Francisco-based research group. 鈥淲e鈥檝e also got the soft technology for getting those kids back, the social media, and immense door-to-door campaigns.
鈥淏ut I don鈥檛 think there was a hunger to return dropouts before the economic downturn,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t was believed that there were still places in the economy that they could go. We know now that isn鈥檛 the case.鈥�
Lost Potential
In generations past, out-of-school youths were able to substitute a General 91制片厂视频al Development, or GED, certificate for a standard diploma鈥攊f they needed one at all to get a good-paying job鈥攂ut studies during the past 20 years have shown adults who got a GED without additional postsecondary credentials fare little better on the job market than outright dropouts.
An analysis of 2011 American Community Survey data by the EPE Research Center places the size of the young adult population鈥攖hose from 16 to 21 years of age鈥攁t about 27.1 million. Three-quarters of these youths are attending school, with similar shares enrolled at the K-12 and postsecondary levels. Nineteen percent of young adults are out of school and have completed high school; 6.5 percent have left school without a diploma or other credential. For out-of-school youths, a high school education is strongly tied to securing employment. Little more than one-third of noncompleters are working.
NOTE: Numbers may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
SOURCE: EPE Research Center, 2013
The long-term effects of not having a high school diploma鈥攐n a person鈥檚 career earnings, health, social situation, and likelihood of incarceration鈥攁re so disastrous that cost-benefit analyses find that for every $1,000 spent on dropout prevention, society reaps a return of $1,500 to $3,000. A 2011 study in 91制片厂视频 Research International finds similar benefits from bringing dropouts back: Even after taking into account the students who drop out multiple times, dropout recovery returns three times the money invested in it.
That may change with the introduction next year of a new, more rigorous, and more expensive GED, but now educators are pushing hard to steer students to a traditional high school degree.
鈥淚鈥檇 like to think [attention to dropouts] comes from a surge of academic conscience, but every student that drops out is a capital loss 鈥� and every one brought back is a reclaimed revenue source,鈥� says Larry M. Perondi, the superintendent of the 20,300-student unified school district in Oceanside, Calif. 鈥淚t鈥檚 real easy to not think about these kids,鈥� Perondi says, 鈥渂ecause they鈥檙e not the easiest population to work with, but there are so many of them, 鈥� and, man, there are some really bright kids who have dropped out of school.鈥�
On the other side of the country, Dericka Ingram, 19, could have been one of those lost students. Organized, thoughtful, and conscientious, Ingram was named a 鈥淪tar of the Month鈥� in 2008 at Belmonte Middle School, in the Boston suburb of Saugus, for demonstrating 鈥済reatest assistance to others.鈥�
An original analysis conducted by the EPE Research Center reveals state-to-state and regional differences in the percentage of youths who do not have a diploma (or an alternative credential) and are no longer in school. Nationally, according to the analysis of data from the 2011 American Community Survey, 6.5 percent of young people between the ages of 16 and 21 lack a diploma and are not enrolled in school. Higher concentrations of such 鈥渞ecoverable鈥� youths are found in the South, Southwest, and West. Georgia, Louisiana, New Mexico, Montana, and Nevada have the highest percentages, at roughly 9 percent each.
SOURCE: EPE Research Center, 2013
But the high school transition was rough, and her mobility proved to be a problem. When Ingram had to move in with her grandmother and transfer from Everett High School in Everett, Mass., to the South Boston 91制片厂视频 Complex, the new school either never received or wouldn鈥檛 accept her previous credits, she says.
鈥淚 had to start from the beginning because they never sent over my classes,鈥� she recalls. 鈥淚 didn鈥檛 like it. At all. I was looking for a job as well, so I figured, since I don鈥檛 want to go to that school anyway, ... I just up and left.鈥�
In many places, Ingram wouldn鈥檛 have had much choice after leaving school, particularly since she is overage. But the teenager was leaving school just as Boston was committing to giving her a way back.
One-Stop Approach
Boston is one of a network of cities, including Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Portland, Ore., that have established 鈥渞e-engagement centers"鈥攐ne-stop shops to help returning students find a new school or online classes; connect with social workers and therapists when needed; and plan for college and a career.
Five years ago, concerns about Texas鈥� high dropout rate led to a statewide focus on recovering the students who had already left school. One program that emerged was an initiative to recover dropouts that was considered unique in the nation.
While most work on dropout recovery takes place at the local level, the Texas legislature enacted a law that allows the state to provide funds to school districts preparing students as old as 26 to receive their high school diplomas. The Texas 91制片厂视频 Agency also began a dropout-recovery grant program that ran from 2008 to 2012 and offered support to districts, nonprofit organizations, and institutions of higher education interested in bringing students back to school. The agency partnered with the Boston-based Jobs For the Future to train grantees and facilitate the sharing of best practices among them.
Each grantee created its own program, which could offer students pathways to a high school diploma or to demonstrating college readiness. The structure and results of programs across the state varied. Some were mainly online, while others involved door-to-door recruitment and in-class programs. In 2011, six of the programs were responsible for most of the recovered students鈥攂ut the successful programs included both school districts and nonprofit organizations. Most programs offered financial incentives for students who met specific benchmarks and earned diplomas or certificates of college readiness. Overall, the results were striking: By 2012, the program had served more than four times as many students as it had anticipated.
But a tighter state education budget meant the program had no budget after 2012, and the last grant cycle ended in March. The TEA created a website with resources on dropout recovery, which it hopes districts will continue to use despite the funding drop-off.
Projects
- Total number of projects funded: 42
- Total active in 2012: 34
- 26 school districts, 2 nonprofits, 3 community colleges, 3 charter schools
- Total program cost: $20 million
Student Involvement
- Students projected to be involved through 2012: 2,042
- Students actually served through 2012: 9,823
- Students who earned a diploma or demonstrated college readiness through 2012: 2,498
Student Attendance and Demographics
- Last attended grade 9: 40%
- Last attended grade 12: 25%
- Economically disadvantaged: 75%
- Limited-English-proficient: 23%
- Special education: 12%
Statewide Dropout Rate
- 2008-09: 9.4%
- 2009-10: 7.3%
- 2010-11: 6.8%
NOTE: The Texas 91制片厂视频 Agency defines a dropout as a public school student enrolled in grades 7-12, who does not return to public school the following fall, is not expelled, and does not graduate, receive a GED certificate, continue school outside the public school system, begin college, or die.
鈥擩aclyn Zubrzycki
New models for dropout recovery鈥攊ncluding re-engagement centers, charter school networks, and public-private partnerships鈥攁re blossoming nationwide. But so far, most are pockets of promise rather than a comprehensive public-policy strategy, says Russell W. Rumberger, an education professor and the director of the California Dropout Research Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
鈥淭he new trend is to have programs designed to attract, enroll, and help these students finish,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a new sector in the business of working with these really high-risk kids.鈥�
In Chicago, where slightly more than 60 percent of students graduated from high school on time last year, a network of charter schools specializes in serving recovered dropouts or students who were struggling in their traditional schools. The 22 schools in the Youth Connection 91制片厂视频 School network are small, and each draws on community groups and local colleges and universities to provide an array of supports and services, including opportunities for students to earn college credits as they are making up their missing high school credits. But the alternative schools also demand a lot from students, who must complete senior portfolios and apply to secondary institutions to earn their diplomas.
In Boston, the center based its approach on the results of interviews with dropouts.
鈥淎t first, we kind of push academics to the back. We start at the human level,鈥� says Manny Allen, a dropout specialist at the center. Allen, a former dropout turned college graduate, says he and other staff members use their own 鈥渆ducational struggles鈥� to connect with students. 鈥淚n our intake, students get to tell their stories,鈥� Allen says. 鈥淎 lot of them have never gotten to tell them in a nonjudgmental setting, and they are able to finally sort through that.鈥�
The center, which opened in 2009, is in South Roxbury, down the street from a bus hub and a subway station, and adjacent to the district鈥檚 technical high school and evening campus. 鈥淲e never want it to feel like the department of motor vehicles, where you take a number and wait,鈥� says Kathy Hamilton of the Boston Private Industry Council, a nonprofit partnership between businesspeople, community groups, and the public schools that helped develop the Boston Re-Engagement Center. 鈥淲e want students to feel welcome here.鈥�
About a third of the center鈥檚 students are referred from teachers and guidance counselors, and another third are contacted during the center鈥檚 monthly sweeps of students who haven鈥檛 been seen in school recently. The rest come as Ingram did, through online research, signs, and word-of-mouth.
In the 2011-12 school year, the most recent for which there is data, the center brought back 501 of the 867 dropouts its staff members contacted. Most, 441, were referred to district schools, alternative campuses, and charters, but because of often-long waiting lists, the center has an online lab and credit-recovery courses available, too. Sixty students were referred to adult education or GED programs. Fifty-four students graduated by the end of the school year; 38 more were on track to graduate by August.
鈥淭he way we are, and the way we deal with young people, sends out the aura that, 鈥榊ou鈥檙e here, you鈥檙e an adult,'鈥�" says Gail Forbes-Harrison, the center鈥檚 director.
Ingram agrees. She made up 16 credits via the center鈥檚 online curriculum this year, working at home and in the center鈥攁nd she鈥檚 scheduled to graduate this summer.
Who鈥檚 Accountable?
The increased attention to and innovation around dropout recovery also shines a harsh light on the paucity of research on how to re-engage these students, and intensifies the debate around quality standards and accountability for educators who work with them, says Patte Barth, the director of the Center for Public 91制片厂视频, at the National School Boards Association, in Alexandria, Va.
Fewer than half the states credit districts in either federal or state accountability systems for graduating students on a five- or six-year time frame rather than the traditional four years, as allowed under 2008 federal graduation rate regulations. But it can make a big difference: The Washington-based nonprofit American Youth Policy Forum, which studies and advocates for fixes to the dropout problem, found that when Michigan included a six-year rate for incoming 9th graders in 2007, the graduation rate increased by 9 percentage points for students in poverty and more than 6 percentage points for black students.
Efforts to bring back students who have given up on a diploma vary from state to state. See a collection of these interventions: Dropout Recovery Takes Shape Nationwide.
And while state longitudinal-data systems have made tracking dropouts easier, states mostly haven鈥檛 changed the high-stakes, test-based accountability systems in which the school where a student last enrolled has responsibility for him or her. This sometimes leads to a game of hot potato with those who are perceived as unlikely to graduate on time.
Even 鈥渟uccessful鈥� dropout-recovery programs typically have a graduation rate of 55 percent to 75 percent, which, in comparison with other public schools, makes 鈥渁 pretty solid program look like a failing school that should be shut down,鈥� says Lili Allen, the director of Jobs For the Future, a Boston nonprofit that works to develop educational pathways for college and career readiness.
鈥淲e have this alternative system where we can push out these difficult students,鈥� says UC-Santa Barbara鈥檚 Rumberger. 鈥淭heoretically, it鈥檚 supposed to be a better environment for them, but we don鈥檛 know if it is, and either way, the original school is off the hook. I think that鈥檚 a bad system.鈥�
Rumberger argues for creating a value-added measure for graduation, in which 鈥渆very school that touches that kid ... should be held accountable for the success or failure of that kid.鈥�
Policymakers are starting to see some movement there, as well. Texas recently completed a pilot grant program that gave districts and community groups base funding to run interventions to bring back dropouts up to age 26, but then tied any additional funding to the number of students who eventually earned a diploma or GED, regardless of what models were used or how long it took.
Ultimately, Jobs For the Future鈥檚 Allen believes dropout recovery will be judged not on whether students get a high school diploma, but on whether they are really prepared for life after graduation: college, careers, family, and a productive civic life.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a growing recognition,鈥� she says, 鈥渢hat this population needs to not just make it over that first finish line but really needs to make it through postsecondary if they are going to sustain family-supporting careers.鈥�
